The Scariest Thing of All

This post is not about politics, but the failure of statistics applied to politics. Our technology, the science behind big data, Bayesian statistics, and ultimately their incarnation in Nate Silver's model, all crumbled down last night. Sure, the FiveThrityEight blog keeps saying that there was a high level of uncertainty associated with the polls, mostly due … Continue reading The Scariest Thing of All

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Are more babies born under a new moon? – pt.2

In a previous post I used a dataset taken from my Facebook friends to debunk the claim that more babies are born under a new moon. I have now a chance to increase the test statistics significantly, not because in the meanwhile I made many more friends, but because people collaborating to the FiveThirtyEight blog … Continue reading Are more babies born under a new moon? – pt.2

Te le do io le proiezioni!

Introduzione Visto che le prossime elezioni si avvicinano, è bene prepararsi per tempo… Con questo post voglio fornire un semplice strumento di calcolo per effettuare in casa le proiezioni elettorali. Sia chiaro, non ho la pretesa che sia un metodo accurato: in questa prima versione la cosiddetta forchetta o forbice è data semplicemente come incertezza … Continue reading Te le do io le proiezioni!