The Scariest Thing of All

This post is not about politics, but the failure of statistics applied to politics. Our technology, the science behind big data, Bayesian statistics, and ultimately their incarnation in Nate Silver's model, all crumbled down last night. Sure, the FiveThrityEight blog keeps saying that there was a high level of uncertainty associated with the polls, mostly due … Continue reading The Scariest Thing of All


Te le do io le proiezioni!

Introduzione Visto che le prossime elezioni si avvicinano, è bene prepararsi per tempo… Con questo post voglio fornire un semplice strumento di calcolo per effettuare in casa le proiezioni elettorali. Sia chiaro, non ho la pretesa che sia un metodo accurato: in questa prima versione la cosiddetta forchetta o forbice è data semplicemente come incertezza … Continue reading Te le do io le proiezioni!

Bloody Valentine’s Day: Basic Sentiment Analysis

A harsh day, indeed! It all begun February 14, 1929, when  the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre took place in Chicago. Seven mob associates as part of a prohibition era conflict between two powerful criminal gangs in Chicago: the South SideItalian gang led by Al Capone and the North Side Irish gang led by Bugs Moran. Former members of the Egan's Rats gang were also suspected of having played a … Continue reading Bloody Valentine’s Day: Basic Sentiment Analysis